量子基金创始人吉姆·罗杰斯先生

吉姆·罗杰斯是现代华尔街的风云人物，被誉为最富远见的国际投资家，是美国证券界最成功的实践家之一。 1970年和索罗斯共同创建量子基金。

他与妻子佩奇帕克花了三年时间开车环游世界。总计行程二十四万五千公里，去了116个国家。经历众多国家后，他判断，21世纪将是中国的世纪，中国将再次崛起。

未来在中国都有哪些投资机会？应该如何把握中国的未来发展？围绕这些问题，在钛媒体和国家新媒体产业基地联合主办的2021 T-EDGE全球创新大会上，著名国际投资家、量子基金创始人吉姆·罗杰斯带来了题为《我如何看今日的世界及我的做法》分享。

在他看来，人民币正在被越来越多的人所重视，而与此对应的人民币资产和中国公司非常值得关注。就投资本身来说，他归纳了几个代表未来的重点机会：

1、“一带一路”将会在途径地区带来进一步的繁荣；

2、随着房地产、教育的深刻变化，新的投资机遇呼之欲出；

3、大湾区、太阳能、生态环境治理、电动汽车以及农业领域都存在大量机会；

即便是在疫情肆虐的今天，罗杰斯仍旧看好航空公司，其个人也持有中国航空公司的股票。他坚定看好中国的未来，他认为：“这个世纪会对中国有利，当然一路上会有挫折，每个人崛起的路上都有挫折，无论是家庭，还是个人、公司。”

以下为Jim Rogers演讲实录，经钛媒体编辑整理：

I am Rogers, I am delighted to be here. But before we start I very much want to thank TMTPOST for putting this on and for inviting me. I am very pleased to be at the 2021 T Edge experience conference. Hope there will be more conferences like this in the future.

And before I start I would like to make a comment about TMTPOST. You know, this is a company that didn't exist 15 years ago, and that's the sort of thing which is happening in China these days.

I first went to China in 1984 and it is astonishing.

我是罗杰斯，我很高兴来到这里。但是在我们开始之前，我非常感谢钛媒体的安排，感谢它邀请了我。我很高兴能参加2021年钛媒体的T Edge大会，我希望将来会有更多这样的会议。

在我开始之前，我想说说自己对钛媒体的评价。这是一家15年前还不存在的公司。这就是目前在中国正在发生的事情。

我第一次去中国是在1984年，中国的发展令人吃惊。

China has been the most successful country in the past 40 years，and I expect that to continue for a long time to go. And TMTPOST is just one of many companies in China. As the Chinese unleashed the brains and their Entrepreneurship and their drive.

So thank you TMTPOST and thank everybody, So now let's talk about what's going on in the world.

A few years ago, my wife Page Parker and I spent three years driving around the world. 245 thousand kilometers in 116 countries.

在过去的40年里，中国一直是最成功的国家，我希望这能持续很长一段时间。钛媒体只是中国众多公司中的一家，中国人将继续释放出他们的智慧、创业精神和动力。

所以谢谢钛媒体，谢谢大家。现在让我们谈谈世界上正在发生的事情。

几年前，我的妻子佩奇帕克和我花了三年时间开车环游世界。行程二十四万五千公里，去了116个国家。

And as you can see we got into the Guinness Book of World Records, I'm the first hedge fund manager to drive around the world. So I guess for me it was fairly easy to do.

We started in Iceland, we drove through Europe, Turkey, China, Korea, Japan into Siberia, into Mongolia, all across Russia, all around Europe in 32 countries, in Africa, Southeast the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Australia and New Zealand, down to the bottom of South America, up through Central America, up to Alaska, then back down to US and to New York.

如你所见，我们进入了吉尼斯世界记录。我是第一个开车环游世界的对冲基金经理，所以我想对我来说这很容易做到。我们从冰岛开始，开车经过欧洲、土耳其、中国、韩国、日本，然后进入西伯利亚、去了蒙古、穿过俄罗斯，环游整个欧洲。

一路上我们经历了32个国家，在非洲、在中东东南部、在东南亚、在澳大利亚和新西兰，一直往下走到南美洲的底部，穿过中美洲，一直到阿拉斯加，然后回到美国纽约。

It was three years on the road, 245 thousand kilometers, 116 countries. So we were tired.When we got home,we thought we would stop and rest for a while.But one result of resting openly, This is the journey,Let me show you the journey first. This is the great wall.

我们在路上花了三年时间，行程二十四万五千公里，途径116个国家，所以我们当时很累，当我们回到家的时候，我觉得我们应该停下来休息一会儿。 

When we got home we decided we would stop and rest for a while.Well, one result of resting for a while is we now have a baby girl.I had never had a child before in my life ,I was very much against children.I thought children were a terrible waste of time, money, energy.I felt so sorry for my friends who had children. But I want you to know I was completely wrong.Children are fabulous.Everybody should have children.

当我们到家时我们决定停下来休息一会儿。休息一段时间的一个结果是，我们现在有了一个女儿。

我以前的生活里从没有孩子，我非常反对生孩子，我认为抚养孩子是浪费时间，金钱，精力，我为我那些有孩子的朋友感到难过，但我想让你知道我完全错了，有孩子太棒了，每个人都应该有孩子。

It's a fabulous fabulous experience.So if you haven't done it,take a day off or go home for lunch one day because it is a very good experience.It'll be good for you.It'll be good for China!

China needs more babies.The world need more babies.

I took my own advice one day and we went home for lunch and you can see now we have two.So I am very much in favor of children and I hope that all of you will do it as soon as you can.

Here they are again,a little bit older on China, on CCTV and I will give you an example.One of the things that I was telling people all in America for many years is.

有小孩是很棒很精彩的体验，所以如果你还没这么做，请一天假或者回家吃午餐，因为这是非常好的经历，对你会有好处的，对中国会有好处的，中国需要更多的孩子，世界需要更多的孩子。

有一天我听从了自己的建议，我们回家吃了午饭，你可以看到现在我们有两个孩子了，因此，我非常支持抚养孩子，我希望你们所有人都能尽快有自己的孩子。

You should teach your children and grandchildren Mandarin.Because China is going to be the most important country in the 21st century.I even moved to Asia because of China, because I wanted my children to know Asia,and I wanted them to speak Mandarin.Many countries in the world have been successful in the past.

Rome was successful once.Egypt was successful once.Great Britain was great once.But China has been great three or four times in world history.China's the only country that has had total top, total collapse,but then rose to the top again.

我多年来告诉美国人民的一件事是，你应该教你的孩子和孙子中文，因为中国将成为21世纪最重要的国家，我甚至因此中国搬到亚洲，因为我想让我的孩子了解亚洲，我想让他们说普通话。世界上许多国家过去都取得了成功，罗马曾经成功过，埃及曾经成功过，大不列颠曾经伟大过，但中国在世界历史上曾有过三四次伟大的时期，中国是唯一一个曾经极度辉煌，又全面崩溃，但后来又上升到了顶峰的国家。

No other country has been able to do it at three or four times except China,and the 19th century was the century of the UK,the 20th century was the century of the US,the 21st century is going to be the century of China.

A lot of people don't like that,but it doesn't matter whether we like it or not.China's on the rise again and it's going to be a very great year. A great century for China.

除了中国，没有哪个国家能这么做到三四次。19世纪是英国的世纪，20世纪是美国的世纪，21世纪将是中国的世纪。很多人不喜欢这样，但我们喜不喜欢并不重要，中国正在再次崛起，这将是一个非常伟大的时代、中国的伟大世纪。

So you can see,I am quite keen on the future of China,quite keen on the future of Asia.And the 21st century will be the century of Asia and the century of China because of that.And many people in the world who don't like it.

I repeat,but it really doesn't matter.You know, history is full of changes.One of the great changes in the 21st century is the rise of China again.

A few years ago we had a big big economic problem in the world in 2008 economies collapse.

所以你能看到，我对中国的未来很感兴趣，对亚洲的未来很感兴趣，21世纪将是亚洲的世纪和中国的世纪，以及世界上许多不喜欢它的人，我再说一遍，但这真的不重要。

历史上充满了变化，21世纪最大的变化之一是中国的再次崛起。

几年前世界出现一个很大的经济问题，2008年的全球经济危机。

China was one of the things that saved the world in 2008.China had a lot of money saved up for a rainy day.They had very little debt,and so when the world collapsed.China started spending this money it had saved and helped save the world.Not many people could do it and now nobody can do it cause even China has a lot of debt.

So what the US did was cut interest rates,printed a huge amount of money.And as you know,interest rates went to almost zero.The lowest they've ever been in recorded history because of the central banks.Not just in the US but around the world everybody started printing a lot a lot of money going forward.

中国是2008年拯救世界的重要力量之一，中国存了很多钱以备不时之需，中国当时几乎没有债务，所以当世界崩溃的时候，中国开始花掉它存下来的钱，并帮助拯救世界。

没有多少人能够做到这一点，现在也没有人能做到，因为即使是中国也有很多债务，因此，美国所做的就是降低利率，美国印了一大笔钱。

如你所知，利率几乎为零，因为中央银行的做法,利率是有史以来最低的一次，不仅在美国，在全世界的银行都开始大量印刷钞票。

This also has led to a strength in the US dollar.

这也导致美元走强。

So China’s help saved the world in 2008 and 2009 by spending some of the money it had saved up for a rainy day. Other governments,the US for instance,cut interest rates as much as they could.

They printed huge amounts of money.Interest rates are now the lowest they have ever been in the history of the world.We've never seen anything like this before.At the same time because of what was going on,the United States dollar was very very strong.People worried about the future and when people a word.They look for a safe haven.People think the us dollar is a safe haven.

所以中国通过将一部分积蓄起来以备不时之需，这种帮助在2008年，2009年拯救了世界上的其他政府，例如美国。

为了尽可能地降低利率，他们印了大量的钞票，现在的利率达到了历史最低水平，我们以前从没见过这种操作，同时，因为形势的进展，美元非常坚挺，人们担心未来，当人们有话要说，人们想找避险货币，人们认为美元是一种避险货币。

So many people switch to the us dollar and it's been very strong. Now you all know what's going on in China.In this period of time,the Chinese stock market had a couple of big booms.It's been strong again in the last few years.We will talk more about the Chinese stock market in a minute

But I will tell you that I do own shares in China,and will probably and I am looking for more shares in China as we go forward.I told you before,China is going to be the great country of this century some day.I hope that my children say,we must have been smart.Look at all these Chinese shares we have.

所以许多人转向美元，美元一直非常坚挺，现在你们都知道中国发生了什么。在这段时间里，中国股市曾经有过几次大的繁荣期，在过去的几年里它又变得很强大，我们一会儿会更多地讨论中国股市。

但我要告诉你，我在中国的股市确实持有股票，而且我很可能在将来寻找更多的中国股份。我之前告诉过你，中国总有一天会成为本世纪的伟大国家。我对我的孩子说，我们一定很聪明，看看我们手中的这些中国股票。

You know, if you'd sold your American shares a 100 years ago.You would have looked smart for a while.But 80 years later you would have looked pretty foolish.That's the way my view of China.The century is going to be good for China.

Yes,there will be setbacks along the way.Everybody has setback sinces they rise.Whether it's a family or an individual or a company or a country.The United States was the most successful country in the 20th century.But we had horrible problems along the way,including many many depressions,many problems in the US. So don't worry.

如果你在100年前卖掉你的美国股票，你一度看起来很聪明，但80年后，你看起来很愚蠢。这就是我对中国的看法。

这个世纪会对中国有利，是的，一路上会有挫折，每个人崛起的路上都有挫折，无论是家庭，还是个人，公司，还是国家，美国是20世纪最成功的国家，但我们一路走来有一些可怕的问题。包括很多萧条期，美国有很多问题，所以不用担心。

You will have problems too going forward.But there's a wonderful Mandarin word: Weiji. We don't have the word in English.But Weiji means catastrophe and opportunity.The same thing.

By the way,the Koreans and the Japanese have the same word,the same character.they got it from the Chinese. But all of you have been around a lot longer than we have been in the West.So you know that opportunity and disaster go hand in hand.So when you see problems in China.

Don't worry, and one of the main reasons that you should not worry about the future is that the One Belt One Road project which China has initiated.

有一个很棒的中文单词，危机，英语里没有这个词，危机意味着灾难和机遇，一样的道理，顺便说一下，韩国人和日本人有相同的词，因为他们具有一样的性格，他们是从中国人这儿学到的，但你们对此的理解比我们在西方多很多，所以你知道机遇和灾难是相伴而生的。

所以当你看到中国有一些问题，别担心，其中一个人们不该担心中国未来的主要的原因是中国发起的一带一路项目。

It's not often in world history. The geography changes. 500 years ago the Spanish and the Portuguese started sailing around the world and changed geography.The railroad came along and changed geography.Couple of 100 years ago,you've heard of San Francisco and the United States.

San Francisco is a major city.Would it there because of the railroad.It would not exist if the railroad hadn't come along and made it a great city.So geography doesn't change often.With the most important project in the 21st century so far is the one belt one road project which China has initiated.

在世界历史上并不常见，地理位置在变化，500年前，西班牙人和葡萄牙人开始航海环游世界，并改变了地理格局。

铁路的出现也改变了地理格局。几百年前，你听说过旧金山和美国，旧金山是个大城市，会不会是因为铁路，如果铁路没有出现它不会存在，不会成为一个大城市，地理位置不会经常发生变化，目前为止21世纪最重大的项目是中国发起的“一带一路”计划。

In my view,it is genius.You will help bring together Asia and Europe.Many people gonna make huge amounts of money from the One Belt One Roads.It’s not a secret.Get out of a map,you can see where it's going to go,and you will see that the places where the railroad will be prosperous.Other places will be left behind.But don't worry about it because there's going to be enough prosperity for everybody going forward.If you want to read more about prosperity.

There's a book,you can read the book and you will find out more about it.

So let's focus a little more on China now

在我看来，这简直是天才的构想，这将有助于亚洲和欧洲的团结，很多人会从“一带一路”上赚很多钱。这不是什么秘密，看看地图，你能看到它要去哪里，你会看到有铁路的地方就有繁荣的景象，而其他地方会被抛在后面，但是不要担心，因为这将会给每个往前看的人带来足够的成功，如果你想了解更多关于繁荣昌盛的故事。

有一本书，你可以读这本书你会发现更多关于它的东西，现在，让我们更多关注中国。

You know, China has been the most successful country in the last 40 years by now.Then a great 40 years for China,and it continues to be a great future for China.

Yes,I want to repeat there will be some setbacks along the way.But again,I'm sure I put out sit wrong.But remember Weiji, we've recently had a big collapse in the world economy because of the virus.But that is also an opportunity not just in China but all over the world.Because when things collapse somebody is going to benefit.

目前为止，中国成为过去的40年里最成功的国家，对中国来说是伟大的40年，并将持续创造更伟大的未来，我想再重复一遍，前进的路上会有挫折，但还是要说，我过去搞错过事情，但请记住危机这个词，由于病毒的存在，最近的世界经济经历了一次大崩塌，但这也是一个机遇，不仅是中国的机遇，也是全世界的。因为当很多方面垮掉的时候，有人会从中受益。

And in the last few years the the Chinese Beijing has made some big changes in your economy.They cut back on some of the lending that was taking place.And my view that is fabulous was something that was definitely needed.In China they changed education.In my view that's very good.You know. I live in a country where if you have the money you can hire tutors.But that's not quite fair to the other people if you ask me.

So China's changing the education system,which in my view is very very good.

Property in China has been in a bit of a bubble.

在过去的几年里，中国的经济发生了很大的变化 。中国削减放出贷款，在我看来这很好，绝对很有必要。中国改变了教育政策。在我看来，那非常对。我住在一个你有钱就可以雇辅导老师的国家，但如果你问我怎么看，我觉得这对其他人来说不太公平，中国在改变它的教育系统，依我看，这非常好，中国的房地产市场一直处于泡沫之中。

Well, Beijing doesn't like it,I don't like it.I'm sure most people don't like it.So they're cutting back on the property bubble,which will make things better for all of China going forward.Because whenever you have a big bubble that collapses,a lot of people lose a lot of money.So be sure to take advantage of all the changes that are taking place.

Don't worry about them.My way of investing, whenever I see a disaster.I have learned just like the Chinese have learned to look for the opportunities.You also can find opportunities whenever there's a major government change.

政府并不喜欢这样的情况，我不喜欢这样，我肯定大多数人也不喜欢这样，所以中国削减了房地产泡沫，这将使整个中国的未来变得更好，因为当你有一个大的泡沫破裂后，很多人会损失惨重。因此，一定要充分利用正在发生的所有变化，不用担心。

这是当我看到灾难时我的投资方式，我学会的就像中国人学会的寻找机会一样，当政府决策发生重大变化时，你也能找到机会。

When a government changes something,they spend a lot of money and a lot of effort.But so somebody is going to make a lot of money.It might as well be you who makes a lot of money.Just see what governments do.One Belt One Road,to mention that again.Or some of the changes in property or education or other things that are happening in China lead to opportunities.And also whenever there's new major new change that comes along.It leads to great opportunities.

Look out the window,you see some of the great changes.China is a major leader in solar energy, way ahead of most other countries.

当一个政府改变了什么政策方向，他们花了很多的钱和很多的努力，有人会赚很多钱，也可能是你自己赚了很多钱，看看政府会怎么做，一带一路。我再说一遍，房地产或教育，或其他方面正在中国发生的变化会带来机遇。而且每当有新的重大的新变化出现时，它会带来巨大的机遇。

往窗外看，你会看到一些巨大的变化，中国是太阳能领域的主要领导者，远远领先于其他大多数国家。

Well figure out who's good at it.You know, you can see some of the changes that are taking place in the world,and then that will lead to opportunities.I'm not very good at technology.But a lot of Chinese are good at technology.So find the ones who are good at it and go with them and make a fortune.

Always, the world is always changing and,you are leaders in tech, you China are leaders and many technologies,electric vehicles. You're one of the great leaders of electric vehicles.Environmental clean up.You're cleaning.

找出谁最擅长这个，你可以看到世界上正在发生的一些变化，这样就会带来机会，我不太擅长科技领域，但很多中国人擅长科技，所以，找到那些擅长的人，和他们一起去发财。

世界总是在变化，中国是很多技术领域的领导者，电动车，中国在电动汽车处于很不错的领先地位，生态环境的治理方面，中国正在进行环境治理。

You know. Beijing is decided they're going to clean up China or somebody's going to make a lot of money.Cleaning up China.Figure out who's good at it at cleaning up China and cleaning up the world.By the way,figure out who's good at it and you will make a lot of money.

Agriculture.I'm very optimistic on agriculture.Well,Beijing has decided that they're going to help the countryside.Beijing has said.Well you know, in the last 40 years many people in the cities have done well.

Look out the window.You'll see many people in the cities have done well.But they've also decided they were now going to help the countryside because they haven't done as well

北京决定治理中国的生态环境，可能就会有人因此致富，治理中国的生态环境，找出谁在治理中国的生态环境方面比较擅长，谁在治理世界的生态环境方面比较擅长。

顺便说一下，找出谁擅长这个，你就会赚很多钱。

农业，我对农业非常乐观，北京已经决定他们要帮助乡村，北京已经表示，在过去的40年里城市里的许多人做得很好，往窗外看，你会看到许多人在城市里做得很好，但他们也决定他们现在要帮助中国乡村，因为乡村与之相比，没有做得那么好。

So if you want to,if you don't like living in Beijing or Shanghai.Go back to the countryside,Beijing will do what they can to help you become a farmer or open shops.

So whatever it is.There going to be many many great opportunities in the countryside going for.And of course certainly need to mention the Greater Bay Project that Beijing is initiated or is developed helping with.You know, you look at America for instance.We have the greater Bay,the San Francisco Bay area,Palo Alto.

Other countries,other cities,that's been a major prosperous region

所以如果你想，如果你不喜欢住在北京或上海，回乡下去。北京会尽他们所能帮助你成为一个农民去开店铺。

所以不管是什么，在农村将会有很多好机会，当然需要提到政府发起，比如政府正在帮助发展的大湾区建设规划。看看美国，美国也有大湾区，旧金山湾区、帕罗奥图和其他城市，那是一片繁荣的地区。

China is now doing the same thing with your Greater Bay and you had more people.And there will probably be many many more opportunities as China develops its own Greater Bay.The many opportunities in China and in the world.I've explained how you find some other whenever you see a new change.I've told you three ways that I look for plate thesis to invest or find things to invest.

So back to property for instance.Which is a disaster in some parts of the world right now and Beijing is trying to make it change.Look for who is going to benefit.Some people are going to suffer badly.

中国现在也在你们自己的大湾区做同样的事情，你们有更多的人，随着中国发展自己的大湾区，将会有更多的机遇。

在中国和世界上有许多机遇，我已经解释了，当你看到新的变化时你是如何找到机遇的。

回到房地产的问题上，这在世界上的一些地方是一场灾难，北京正在努力改变它，寻找谁将从中受益，一些人将会遭受巨大的痛苦。

But some people are going to benefit very very well.Likewise with the virus，it damaged transportation, tourism, entertainment, restaurants, hotels.Many parts of the world economy have been damaged in suffering.Well, look at some of them.I mean airlines are going to survive.I own Chinese airline stocks for instance.Because I know we're not going to take the boat to London in the future.

We're not going to take the boat to Brazil in the future.We're going to fly to these various countries.So try to figure out.

但有些人会从中大为受益，病毒也一样，它破坏了运输业、旅游业、娱乐、餐厅、酒店，世界经济的许多方面都在痛苦中受到了损害，看看他们中的一些人。我是说，航空公司会挺过来的，比如我持有中国航空公司的股票，因为我知道我们以后不会坐船去伦敦了，我们以后不会坐船去巴西了，我们将乘航班飞往这些不同的国家，所以想想办法。

Who's going to benefit or who's not going to suffer too much from the disaster taking place.I'm missing technology before.You know, I don't know much about technology.But I do(know),my wife for instance loves the Meta universe.Don't ask me.But if you know what you're doing it.Maybe you will find some great opportunities in the technological changes that are taking place in the world as well.

So I hope that all of you,I urge all of you to look for opportunities in China.The Chinese continue to change, develop dramatically.I mentioned One Belt One Road.

谁将从中受益，谁又不会因灾难的发生而遭受太多的痛苦。之前我错过了科技，我对科技了解不多，但我知道，比方说我妻子喜欢元宇宙，别问我这个哈，但如果你知道自己在做什么，也许你也会在世界上正在发生的技术变革中发现一些很好的机会。

所以我希望你们所有人，我敦促大家在中国寻找机会，中国仍在变化并显著地发展，我提到了一带一路。

I mentioned some of the technological changes that are taking place.You know. Watch TMTPOST and find out what's going on.I'm delighted that they come up with this conference.I hope there will be more conferences like this in the world after the epidemic.Certainly that we all need to talk and meet more together.

So I urge TMTPOST to have more conferences like this.Bring people together.We can exchange ideas,we can find that we're not dangerous to each other.

我提到了一些正在发生的科技变化，观看钛媒体，了解中国正在发生什么。我很高兴钛媒体组织了这个峰会，我希望疫情过后世界上会有更多这样的会议，我确信我们都需要更多的交谈和见面，所以我也希望钛媒体组织更多这样的会议，把人们聚在一起，我们可以交换意见，我们会发现，我们对彼此并不是危险的对手。

So I hope you will all read TMTPOST,find out what's going on in the world.Find your great investments how to become prosperous.You can also read the book as well.

Thank you now I will take questions about anything you want.

我希望大家都读钛媒体，看看世界上发生了什么，找到你自己伟大的投资，并学会如何致富。

以下钛媒体创始人赵何娟女士对话罗杰斯实录，经钛媒体编辑整理：

Rogers: Ms Zhao. I want to tell you. I am extremely impressed with TMTPost. It's one of the great stories in China in the last few decades as you know. China has many great stories as China rises again. It's very very exciting and it's because of you and people like you that I move to Asia. And then my daughters speak Mandarin. So congratulations and please keep up the good work it's very very exciting to watch. 

赵女士你好，我想告诉你，钛媒体着实让我印象深刻，是过去几十年来在中国发生的伟大故事之一。随着中国再次崛起，我们见到了越来越多成功故事。这是非常非常令人兴奋的，正是因为你，和许多其他像你这样的人，我才搬到了亚洲，我的女儿们也学会了说普通话。所以恭喜你们，继续努力，你们的成功很让人兴奋。

Zhao: Thank you Mr. Rogers, your encouragement. OK thank you and then now let’s start our dialogue. I want to introduce myself first. I am Hejuan Zhao, founder of TMTPost. I am very honor to have my talk show, “He Why”, with you, especially in such a unique time between 2021 and 2022, a historical period with special significance. TMTPost has been committed to promoting innovation and business exchanges between China and the world. So I believe you are no strangers to China. So first, can you say hello to your Chinese fans first because I know you have many Chinese fans.

谢谢你，罗杰斯先生，谢谢你的鼓励。我们现在开始这段连线采访吧。我想先介绍一下自己。我是TMTPost的创始人赵何娟，很高兴能有机会在我的英文对话栏目“何谓对话”中与您进行交流，尤其是在2021年至2022年之间，一个具有特殊意义的历史时期。 钛媒体TMTPost一直致力于促进中国与世界的科技创新交流。我相信您对中国并不陌生。在开始正式访谈之前，可以先和镜头另一边的中国粉丝问好，您有很多中国粉丝。

Rogers: Nihao, China, Nihao, Chinese citizens. I have been coming to China since 1984 and it's always been very very exciting educational and a lot of fun. So please keep up the good work. China is on the rise again. China is going to be a great great country again.

你好，中国，你好，中国朋友们。从1984年开始，我就经常往返于中国，每一次都让我收获匪浅，非常愉快。中国朋友们加油。中国正在崛起的道路上，会再次成为一个伟大的国家。

Zhao: OK, thank you. I know that yesterday you also talked about that you are confident about China and it surprised me that your daughter spoke so good Mandarin in our T-EDGE Conference. So I would like to talk more about your your Chinese prospects first. The first question is about why are you so confident? If you have any more investment plans in the Chinese market? What industries do you think will do great in China in the future?

好的。昨天您谈到您对中国非常有信心，您的女儿在我们的 T-EDGE 会议上也展示了一口流利的中文。我想先谈谈您在中国前景的看法。第一个问题是，为什么您对中国这么自信？您在中国市场是否有更多的投资计划？您看好中国的哪些产业？

Rogers: Well, why am I so confident? Because I know Chinese history. You're the only country in world history that's been great three or four times for whatever reason. When China rises to the top and then falls after a few decades or a few centuries, China rises to the top again. Ms Zhao, no other country in the world has ever been able to do that. Great Britain was great once, Rome was great once, Egypt was great once. China keeps repeating that I don't know why maybe it's because of the women maybe it's because of you. I don't know why China has been great 3 or 4 time but I know it's happening again.

嗯，我为什么对中国这么自信？因为我了解中国历史。中国是世界历史上唯一一个在多次经历大起大落后，还能保持强大地位的国家。当中国的国力达到顶峰，然后在几十年或几个世纪后衰落，但又能再次登上顶峰。赵女士，世界上没有其他国家能够做到这一点。英国曾经伟大过，罗马曾经伟大过，埃及曾经伟大过，而中国不断重复着辉煌，我不知道为什么是这样，可能是因为像是你们这样的人，中国得以变得成功。我不知道为什么中国能多次攀上巅峰，但我知道中国还能再次重复以往的辉煌。

First time I went to China I was terrified. I have been reading American propaganda all my life that the Chinese were dangerous, ambitious and bloodthirsty evil people. I got there I found out the Chinese were educated, hard-working, disciplined, ambitious. Wait a minute. This is not a dangerous country, this is going to be a very great successful country. And as I rode around China more and more, I saw what was happening I continue to see what's happening. So that is why I am optimistic about China.

第一次去中国的时候，我其实很害怕。美国政府的意识形态教育影响了我很长时间，他们说中国人是危险的、野心勃勃的、嗜血的、邪恶的人。但真的到了中国，我发现中国人是受过良好教育的、勤奋的、纪律严明的、雄心勃勃的。我就觉得“等一下，这不是一个危险的国家，这将是一个非常成功的国家。”随着我在中国的阅历的增多，目睹了中国的崛起。所以这就是我看好中国的原因。

There will be problems. Don't worry. America became the most successful country in the 20th century. We had a lot of problems along the way. Everybody who rises, whether an individual or a family or a company or a country, nothing goes straight up. Your blow up like this. So I see what's happening in China. I'm sure you'll make mistakes. Everybody make some mistakes. But I'm teaching my children Mandarin, and I'm teaching my children about Asia, because of what's happening in China. And remember when there are problems, remember the Mandarin word 危机. You know 危机 is also the opportunity and disaster of the same thing.

别担心。 美国是20世纪最成功的国家。 一路上我们遇到了很多问题。 不管是说个人、家族、亦或是公司或者国家，都不可能一直保持直线上升状态。 中国也是一样的。我看到了中国正在发生的故事。 中国会犯错。 每个人都会犯一些错误。 但我正在教我的孩子们讲普通话，教我的孩子们关于亚洲的事情，就是因为中国的这些故事。 并记住，出现问题时，也就是“危机”出现了，意味着既有危险也有机会。

Zhao: OK so for for your side do you have any plans to invest more in China in the future?

在中国，您未来是否有什么投资计划呢？

Rogers: I have Chinese stocks. I am always looking, if I find something in China, or anywhere in the world but especially in China. Yes I hope that I find more Chinese investments especially when they have problems and I would like to invest more. China's great you know if you have sold American stocks before 100 years ago, it would've been mistake. That's my view of China, my children I hope will have a lot of Chinese shares someday and it will make them very happy. 

我持有中国公司的股票。 我一直在寻找投资机会，不管是在中国或世界任何地方，当然我特别关注中国。 是的，我希望我能在中国找到更多的投资机会，尤其是出现难题时，我想投资更多。 中国很好，如果你在 100 年前卖掉一支美国股票，那会是一个错误。 这就是我现在对中国的看法，我希望我的孩子们有一天能有很多中国公司的股票，这会让他们很开心。

Zhao: So what industry do you preferred or if you have some opportunities to make investments? What industry?

如果有机会的话，您会投资什么类型的行业呢？

Rogers: Right now because of the virus that causes the epidemic a world problem so things like transportation, tourism, travel. I own some Chinese wine stock because people stopped going out for a while so I am looking. I don't know much about technology. I'm not very good at it, but if I knew more about you I mean the Chinese are producing many times as many engineers as we are in the US, so there are gonna be great great technology successes in China. Unfortunately I don't know much about it but if I can learn and I will probably buy more technology. And agriculture. Beijing is trying to help agriculture. You are leaders in solar energy. China is leader in many industries. so I'm looking.

目前，由于疫情导致的世界问题，因此我会关注诸如交通、旅游、旅行之类的行业。 我也持有一些中国米酒股票，因为人们已经有一段时间不再外出了，所以我目前也还在观望。 我对技术了解不多， 我不太擅长这个领域，但根据我对你们的了解，中国生产的工程师数量是我们美国的数倍，因此中国将取得巨大的技术成功。不幸的是，我对此所知之甚少，但如果我能学习，我可能会购买更多技术相关的股票。 还有农业。 北京正在努力帮助农业。 你们是太阳能领域的领导者。 中国在许多行业处于领先地位。 总而言之，我还在观望。

Zhao: So then what is your take on China's reform and opening up policies in the finance sector? What do you think of foreign investors’ increasing interest in the Chinese market?

您对中国的金融改革有什么看法呢？怎么看待外国投资者对中国市场的热情?

Rogers: China is already the second largest economy in the world and it's going to be the largest eventually. So yes, China is going to be a great attractive investment destination for people all over the world, including in China. China has been opening up dramatically in the past few decades I would open faster if I were China. I mean this is 2021 this is not 1921, China's a very strong and successful country so I would open completely today if I were doing it. I would open all of your markets and your currency, but I'm not China. You're doing it your way so far it's been very successful. Continue to open up and there will be many more investors from all over the world coming to China.

中国已经是世界第二大经济体，最终将成为最大的经济体。 所以是的，中国会是全世界范围内极具吸引力的投资目的地。 中国在过去的几十年里一直在大力开放，如果我是中国的话，我会更快开放。 现在是 2021 年而不是 1921 年，中国是一个非常强大和成功的国家，所以如果我是中国的话，我今天会完全开放。 我会开放所有的市场和人民币，但我毕竟不是话事人。 到目前为止，中国在按照自己的方式进行开放，并且非常成功。 继续开放吧，将会有更多来自世界各地的投资者来到中国。

Zhao: But as we know, that we can see the overall market of China concepts stocks in the United States is not good enough this year. So how do Wall Street investors evaluate China concepts stocks?

但您应该也知道，今年中概股在美国的表现并不是很好。华尔街的投资人是怎么看待中概股的呢？

Rogers: Well that's that's because it is you know, there have been some setbacks in China and some of them rightly so. I've certainly approved of what Beijing is done with education and lending and property and some other things that are going on in China. But it scared some international investors. But I have to tell you, Ms Zhao. Markets do not go straight up, they go up like this. They go up and down, they have a setbacks along the way. Don't worry. Yes, this is an opportunity. Remember 危机. This is an opportunity. 

那是因为你知道，中国遇到了一些挫折，其中一些是正确的。 我赞同北京在教育、不动产以及其他一些事情上所做的决策。 但这吓坏了一些国际投资者。 但我必须告诉你，赵女士。 市场不会直线上升，而是像这样上涨。 他们上上下下，一路上有挫折。 别担心。 是的，这是一个机会。 牢记危机这个词。 这是一个机会。

Zhao: 危机 is opportunity. so I don't know if you can if you think these kind of China concept stock drop down is healthy market in the United States?

危机也是机会。您认为中概股在美国受挫是正常的现象吗？

Rogers: Well, first of all. Remember that stocks don't go straight up. I don't like to buy stocks up here. I buy stocks when they when they're down because they're cheaper and everybody has to do it their own way but if there are setbacks in markets sometimes create great opportunities and if people do their homework they be very happy to see things going down for a while. It helps calm the markets, it helps makes the market stronger in the long term. 

嗯，首先。 请记住，股票不会直线上升。 我不喜欢在这个价格区间买股票。 我在股票下跌时购买股票，因为它们更便宜，每个人都必须按照自己的方式行事，但如果市场出现挫折，有时会创造巨大的机会，如果人们做好功课，股价下跌对他们是好事。 股票下跌有助于平息市场，有助于使市场长期走强。

Zhao: OK so how do you view the risk of US dollar debt explosion of Chinese real estate. Like Evergrande.

您如何看待中资地产美元债爆雷风险？例如恒大。

Rogers: Well Chinese property in many cities has been wildly profitable. As you know, if you go to Shanghai, Guangzhou, many places as you know Chinese properties been Hong Kong if you go to Chinese properties been very very very expensive. I don't like to buy things that are very very very expensive that has been going up for a long time. Now Beijing understands this and they trying to cool things off rightly so in my view. But if you want to buy property in China Ms Zhao, go to the countryside. Beijing is trying to make the countryside more successful and more prosperous. Ms Zhao, you know how to drive a tractor. I know you don't know how to drive a tractor. You should learn to drive a tractor. You should go if you want to if I were going to buy property in China. I would buy it in the countryside not in the in the booming cities. 

中国很多城市的房地产曾非常有利可图。 如你所知，如果你去上海、广州，或者香港，你会发现中国房产非常非常非常昂贵。 我不喜欢买涨了很长时间的、非常昂贵的东西。 现在北京明白了这一点，在我看来，北京正让市场冷静下来。 但如果你想在中国买房，赵女士，就去农村。 北京正在努力使农村更加成功和繁荣。 赵女士，你会开拖拉机吗？ 我知道你不知道如何驾驶拖拉机。 你应该学会开拖拉机。 如果我要在中国买房，你应该去乡下。 我会在农村买房而不是在蓬勃发展的城市里。

Zhao: So I always hear of something from Wallstreet Journal or FT or Bloomberg is that a financial crisis will come. I don’t know if you also agree with it. I want to talk more about American economy and the capital market now because I think it is very important to the whole world. Do you think there will be another financial crisis?

华尔街日报、FT和彭博经常会提到我们将迎来下一次金融危机。我不知道您是否同意这个观点。我想聊聊美国经济和资本市场，我觉得这对整个世界都是很重要的议题。您是否认为接下来我们会迎来一场金融危机呢？

Rogers: Well, Ms Zhao. We always have had financial crisis throughout history all over the world. Nothing goes straight up all of the time. So ses we're going to see more financial crisis in the US and that's where the market been strong since 2009. That is the longest in American history we have never had such a long period when stock is for the stocks were so strong. So we're getting closer to the end. I suspect that in 2022 or so that we will start having big problems again. But I do know we will have problems. American stock market is that at all time highs. Gigantic amount of money has been printed and borrowed and spent. Interest rates are the lowest in American history and world history. So yes we're going to have problems again. You have to read TMTPost to find out when the problems will come, but you know in 2008 and 2009 in the US, we had a big problem is because of to much debt. Since than the debt has skyrocketed all over the world, especially in the US, Japan and Europe everywhere even China has debt now. So the next time we have a problem it's going to be very very bad, may be the worst in my lifetime. But remember 危机 and if you do your homework and if you're prepared then you may take up to take advantage of the opportunity.

赵女士，纵观历史，全世界都经历过金融危机。没有什么事情会一直直线上升。因此，美国也会持续发生金融危机。美国市场自 2009 年以来一直很强劲，是美国历史上最长的一段时期，我们从未经历过如此长的市场强盛时期，股票如此强劲。但这个局势也即将结束了，我怀疑在 2022 年左右，我们将再次遇到大问题。我知道我们会遇到问题。美国股市股价持续高位，我们疯狂的印钱、贷款。现在的利率是美国历史和世界历史上最低的。所以是的，我们会再次遇到问题。你必须阅读钛媒体才能知道什么时候会出现问题了，但你知道在 2008 年和 2009 年在美国，一个大问题就是债务太多。世界各地的债务暴涨以来，特别是在美国、日本和欧洲，甚至中国现在都有债务。所以下次我们遇到问题时，情况会非常非常糟糕，可能是我一生中最糟糕的一次。但请记住危机这个词，如果你做好功课并且做好了准备，那么你可以抓住机会、利用这个机会。

Zhao: But we know that the inflation is very serious now. So how do you think about inflation now. What is your take on the idea of “inflation is only temporary”? So how long do you think the inflation will last? I think in the US the media and everybody I talk about inflation. 

我们都知道通胀现在是个大问题。您怎么看待通胀？您怎么看待“通胀暂时论”？ 通胀会持续多久呢？感觉美国的媒体和美国人都在讨论通胀。

Rogers: Well. Ms Zhao. I can see you heard what the American government says. I have learned not to listen to American government to get my investment advise. Yes they say it's temporary but they don't know what they're doing. I know that throughout history a lot of money printing and spending and borrowing has always lead to a higher inflation, always. Now they say it's not, but they're trying to keep their jobs. They don't care about you or me or China or America or anything else. They're trying to keep their jobs. Inflation is here. It's going to continue. Eventually the market will cause interest rates to go higher and higher and eventually we will stop inflation, but will also slow down the world economy. We will have an economic problem. But remember Ms Zhao, remember 危机. 

赵女士， 您应该是有关注美国政府的动态。 我已经学会了不听美国政府的投资建议。 是的，他们说这是暂时的，但他们不知道自己在做什么。纵观历史，大量印钞、借贷总是会导致更高的通货膨胀，总是如此。 现在他们说不是，他们只是想保住自己的工作而已， 他们不关心你或我、中国、美国或其他任何事情。 他们只是在自保。 通货膨胀来了，它将持续下去， 最终市场会导致利率越来越高，最终我们会解决通货膨胀，但这也会减缓世界经济发展的速度。 我们会遇到经济问题。 但记住危机。

Zhao: 危机. you always remind me of 危机. Can you explain more about this concept in your mind? Because you know in China, many Chinese people are fearful of 危机. I think it is interesting that you always remind me of 危机 is opportunity.

您提到危机。可以仔细说说这个概念吗？很多中国人会害怕危机。我觉得您对危机的看法很有趣。

Rogers: I am afraid of 危机 too. I might lose everything if I make a mistake. I might get it wrong. But you know in Asia, you have been around longer than we have. WE don’t have the word in English, in the west. It is interesting that Koreans and Japanese have the same symbol, character. They pronounce it differently. I mean they learn from China first. But you know, history shows, if your house burns down, it is a disaster. But it is an opportunity for somebody to build a new house. So it is horrible but somebody will benefit from it. I don’t like disaster. I don’t like it. But I am trying to learn as the Asians have learned. Look to see who is going to be benefited.

我也怕危机。 如果我犯了错误，我可能会失去一切。 我可能做出错误决策。 但是你知道，在亚洲，你们有更悠久的历史。 在西方或者英语里，我们没有这个词。 有趣的是，韩国人和日本人有相同的符号、汉字，只是发音不同，毕竟他们也是向中国学习的。 但是你知道，历史表明，如果你的房子被烧毁，那就是一场灾难。但对于一些人来说，这是一个建造新房子的机会。这很可怕，但就是有人会从中受益。 我不喜欢灾难。 我不喜欢它。 但我正在努力学习，就像亚洲人学到的那样。 就看看谁会受益吧。

Zhao: Who do you think will benefit from 危机 if China and the U.S. relationship breaks up?

若中美关系恶化，谁会在危机中获利呢？

Rogers: I don’t like to see that. Throughout history, when a country has problems, the politicians always blame foreigners. It’s everywhere. It is easy to blame foreigners. They look different, they speak differently, they eat differently, they wear different clothes. So everyone likes to blame foreigners when there are problems. Unfortunately Washington had a president who thought he would get elected if he could blame foreginers, including China, especially China, because China is the biggest, and that is not good. History shows it is not good to blame foreigners because it is sometimes fight starts. And over the past forty years, America and China have both prospered with cooperating with each other and both have been successful. Not just America and China but certainly China and other countries. I do not like to see that ends. I would like to see China and America continue to be successful together. Whenever I been in China. Chinese like Americans. And Americans like Chinese. So I hate to see it. Beijing has and was way more restraint as Trump kept hitting China, China was calmer. I hope both countries and both capitals continue to cooperate with each other. I hope we can make a lot of money together. I don’t want to see blaming anybody. And I think I know China and I certainly love China a great deal. I am here. I am here in Asia because of China.

我不希望看到中美关系恶化的局面。纵观历史，当一个国家出现问题时，政客总是责怪于外国人。世界各地都是这样，毕竟指责外国人很容易。他们长得不一样，说话不一样，吃得不一样，穿的衣服也不一样。所以大家都喜欢在有问题的时候责怪外国人。不幸的是，华盛顿之前的总统认为如果他去指责外国，包括中国，特别是中国，因为中国是最大头的，这并不好。历史表明，责怪外国人是不好的，因为它有时是导致矛盾冲突的开始。四十多年来，中美两国在合作中繁荣昌盛，都取得了成功。不仅是美国和中国，当然还有中国和其他国家。我不喜欢看到关系恶化的结局。我希望看到中国和美国继续共同取得成功。每当我在中国，发现中国人喜欢美国人。美国人也喜欢中国人。所以我讨厌看到关系恶化。但特朗普不断打击中国，北京已经比较克制了，中国显得更平静。我希望两国和两国首都能继续相互合作。我希望我们能一起赚很多钱。我不想看到寻找替罪羊的行为。我了解中国，也非常喜欢中国。我就是因为中国才来到亚洲。

Zhao: I also believe that both China and the U.S. cannot be alone in the world. So a few days ago, the U.S. federal reserve chairman suggested that the possibility of raising interest rate. What impact do you think the increase of interest rate will have on the global economy? Will China be affected or China can be alone?

我也认为中美不能孤立于世界。几天前，美联储主席鲍威尔提到有可能进行加息。美国加息对全球有何影响？中国能否走出独立趋势？

Rogers: Throughout history, interest rate goes up and up and up. It affects markets all over the world, whether it is stock market, bond market, commodity market, everything, currency market. So it is going to have that effect again. When I first started in the business, I don’t know about now, but the rule of thumbs was when central bank raises interest rate three times, you should get out of the side market, sell everything. I don’t know if it would be the case this time. But I do know that higher interest rate always harms economy. And if the world economy has problems, Ms Zhao, China will too. You are the largest trading giant in the world now. And even if you do nothing wrong, and your customers have problems, when your customers have problems, China has problems, America has problems. Everybody will have problems when customers start having problems. Higher interest rate eventually will cause economic slow down.

纵观历史，利率总是不断上升， 它影响着全世界的市场，无论是股票市场、债券市场、商品市场、甚至是货币市场。 所以它会再次产生这种效果。 我刚开始进入这行的时候，我不知道现在是怎么做，但是当时的经验法则是，当央行加息三次时，你应该退出市场，卖掉所有东西。 我不知道这次会不会是这种情况。 但我知道的是，更高的利率总是会损害经济。 如果世界经济出现问题，赵女士，中国也会。 你们现在是世界上最大的贸易巨头。 即使你没有做错什么事情，但你的客户有问题，当你的客户有问题时，中国就有问题，美国也有问题。 当客户开始出现问题时，每个人都会遇到问题。 更高的利率最终会导致经济放缓。

Zhao: What is your view on U.S.’s intiative to reconstruct the global supplychain? For example, forcing chip makers to provide their data.

您对美国重塑全球供应链的看法是什么？例如威胁芯片企业提交数据？

Rogers: I would like to think that America and all countries would be able to do things right in the future and they will calm down their economies without big disasters. Unfortunately, America, I will talk about America, since it is the largest economy in the world. United States is the largest debted nation in the history of the world, Ms Zhao. No country in the history of world has ever had that much debt like the U.S. I don’t like saying this. I don’t like saying this at all. We have the biggest debt. So when interest rate starts going higher. America is going to have problems. Everyone is going to have a problem. You are going to see bankruptcy. Beijing has said that if people make mistakes we are going to let them go bankrupt. I hope they do, because it is good for China and good for the world. I hope America, London, Germany and other countries do the same thing because when people make mistakes, they are supposed to fail. But that helps the system in the long term. So I hope we can all survive. Ms Zhao, I have read enough world history for long enough to know that many people will go bankrupt and suffer badly in the next economic problem because the debt is so very high, higher than it has ever been in history.

我希望美国和所有国家能够作出正确的决定，让经济平稳下来，避免重大经济灾难。不幸的是，美国，我将谈论美国，因为它是世界上最大的经济体。美国是世界历史上负债最多的国家，赵女士。世界历史上没有一个国家像美国那样背负过这么多的债务，我不喜欢这么说，一点也不喜欢。但我们有最大的债务。所以当利率开始走高时，美国会遇到问题，每个人都会遇到问题。你会看到破产。北京说，如果人们犯错，我们会让他们破产。我希望他们这样做，因为这对中国和世界都有好处。我希望美国、伦敦、德国和其他国家也做同样的事情，因为当人们犯错时，他们就应该失败。但从长远来看，这对整个经济生态是有帮助的。所以我希望我们都能在灾难中幸存下来。赵女士，我读了足够多的世界历史，我知道很多人会在下一个经济问题中破产并遭受重创，因为债务如此之高，比历史上任何时期都高。

Zhao: I think it is a very sensitive but important question is that Chinese and US relationship. But just forget it. I want to know more about you. As an outstanding and successful investor, how would you evaluate your investment history of the past decade? What do you think it is your biggest gain? And do you have any regret?

中美关系毕竟是敏感话题。我们谈谈别的，我们想要了解您。作为一名出色的投资人，您怎么看待您的职业生涯？您觉得最大的成就是什么？有没有哪些遗憾？

Rogers: Ms Zhao, I have made many mistakes in my life. You want to hear about my mistakes, we could have long discussions about the mistakes. You want to hear about my first wife, Ms Zhao?

赵女士，我这辈子犯了很多错误。 你想听这方面的故事的话，我们可以聊很久。 你想听听我的第一任妻子的事吗？

Zhao: I am little curious about it.

我还挺好奇的。

Rogers: It was a bad mistake. I was unhappy when we separated. Now I am so pleased. I ran into her recently, I am so glad that I am not married to her anymore. That was a disaster for me. But it was 危机, an opportunity too, changed me in many many ways. So in my investment career as well, just like in my personal life, I made many mistakes at times. But fortunately, I have learned from my mistakes. And when I made a mistake, it was always my fault. Some people like to blame the televisionm or the Internet, or brokers. My mistake has always been I did not do enough research. I did not prepare myself. And I urge everybody, if you want to become a successful investor, then you must do a lot of research. It is not easy. And I would tell you that to be successful you must stay with what you yourself know. Do not listen to hot tips. Do not listen to the Internet. Do not listen to your friends. Stay with what you know. Ms Zhao, if you only have 20 investments in your life, you will be very careful. You won’t be droping in and out of stocks all the time. And you will be successful. But some people would say that’s boring. You want to be successful? Be boring. Figure out what you know best and do it. You know? You heard of Henry Ford, automobiles? He didn’t jump around. He stayed. He only invested in cars. That’s what he knew a lot about. And he became very successful. That would be true for everybody. Stay with what they know. And that’s how you become successful.

那是大错误。我们刚分开的时候我很不开心，但现在我很高兴。我最近遇到了她，我很高兴我们已经离婚了。真的是一场灾难。但这是一次危机，是一次机会，在很多方面改变了我。所以在我的投资生涯中，就像在我的个人生活中一样，我有时会犯很多错误。但幸运的是，我从错误中吸取了教训。当我犯错时，就是我的错。有些人喜欢怪罪于电视、互联网或他们的经纪人。我犯错的原因一直是我没有做足够的研究，我自己没有准备好。我敦促大家，如果你想成为一名成功的投资者，那么你必须做大量的研究。这不简单。要想成功，你必须坚持待在你熟悉的领域。不要听热点提示、不要听互联网的、不要听你的朋友的，坚持你所知道的。赵女士，如果你一生只有20项投资，你会很小心的。你不会经常买进抛出股票。这样的话你会成功的。但有人会说这很无聊。你想成功吗？那就走无聊的路线。弄清楚你最了解什么，然后去做。你听说过亨利·福特吗？就是做汽车的那位。他没有跳来跳去，他坚持在自己的领域，他只投资汽车，这是他非常了解的，因此他变得非常成功。对每个人来说都是如此。坚持你所擅长，这就是你成功的方式。

Zhao: So you mentioned that your first marriage was a mistake. Do you think marriage is also like an investment?

您提到您的第一次婚姻是个错误。您是否觉得婚姻也像是一次投资？

Rogers: Yes. I guess. You must be sure that it’s the right decision. Most marriages in the world fail because many people when they were young don’t do as much research maybe they should. And when you let your emotions guide your investment, you are going to lose money. I you got too emotional in your personal life, you will probably make a mistake too. I haven’t thought about it like the way you put it. But yes. If you are going to have personal relationship with this person, if you are going to get involved with somebody for many many many years, you better do your research, you better be sure that you are doing the right thing because most marriages fail and most investments fail. So in that sense, you have good insight.

是的。 我觉得的确是这样。你必须确定你做出的婚姻决定是正确的。 世界上大多数婚姻都失败了，因为很多人年轻时没有做他们应该做的研究。 当你让情绪引导你的投资时，你就会赔钱。 在个人生活中太情绪化了，可能也会犯错误。 我没有像你所说的那样考虑过这件事。 但是，是的，婚姻也是一种投资行为。 如果你打算和某个人建立私人关系，如果你打算和某人交往很多年，你最好做好研究，确保你做的是正确的事，因为大多数婚姻都失败了，大多数投资也会失败。 所以从这个意义上说，你有很好的洞察力。

Zhao: As we know, one of the biggest problems or something we may ask in trouble is how to make judgement, make right judgement. Do you think technology is important for making investment judgement or what kind of things will help make investment more efficient?

我们遇到最大的一个问题可能就是说要如何做出正确的判断。您是否认为科技能够帮助投资人做出更好的判断？什么会让投资变得更高效？

Rogers: That’s a very good question. Extremely good question. When I first started the business, it took a long time to get information. But you know what has happened to communication and information over the past century. Now we can all get information much much faster much quicker. Ms Zhao, if one hundred people go into a room, we all get the same information as the same time, most people will not make the right decision. Judgement is the hard part. Information is great. But judgement. I don’t know how to teach judgement. Many people learn judgement from making mistakes from experience including me. I certainly learned a lot of things from my bad experience. But judgement. If you can teach judgement, Ms Zhao, you would change the whole world. But unfortunately, human beings for centuries have made bad mistakes because their judgement was wrong. They got emotional, whatever it is. They don’t do enough research. So if you can teach judgement, oh boy, you could save us all.

这是一个很好的问题。 非常好的问题。 我刚开始做这行的时候，那时候需要很长时间来获取信息。 但是你也知道在上一个世纪，通信和信息发生了什么改变。 现在我们都可以更快地获得信息。 赵女士，如果现在一百个人进入一个房间，我们都同时获得相同的信息，这时候大多数人不会做出正确的决定。 判断是最难的部分。 有信息当然是好的， 但判断是关键。 我不知道如何教授判断力。 包括我在内，很多人都是从经验中、犯错中学习判断力的。 我从我的经历中学到了很多东西。 但判断。 如果你能教你判断力，赵女士，你将改变整个世界。 但不幸的是，几个世纪以来，人类都犯了严重的错误，因为错误的判断。可能是因为他们受情绪影响，或者是什么其他原因，他们没有做足够的研究。 所以，如果你能教判断力，天哪，你就可以拯救我们所有人。

Zhao: So what is the most important thing in making a right judgement? Is it experience? Or bright brain? Or clever enough? Or your friends? Or money?

要做出正确判断的话，什么是最重要的？是经验呢？还是说要用聪慧的头脑？要足够聪明？还是说因为自己的朋友圈子？或者是资金？

Rogers: Many things. One do you research. Be sure you know everything you can about something. That will help your judgement. But I guess if I have to say about one thing. Don’t follow the crowd. When everybody is thinking the same way, somebody is not thinking. And so when I see everybody thinks the same thing, I then say, wait a minute, if everybody is saying the same thing, then there is probably something wrong here. So I guess you asked how to make judgement. It takes many things. Research, homework but also, I guess the one single thing is do not follow the crowd. If everybody is thinking the same way, you say, wait a minute, I am going to do more research.

很多东西。 一个是你要做研究，确保你掌握相关信息， 这将有助于你的判断。 还有一件事情就是不要随大流。 当每个人都持有相同的想法是，那就意味着有人并没有在思考。 所以当我看到每个人都持有类似的观点时，我会说，等一下，如果每个人都在说同样的事情，那么这里可能出了什么问题。 所以做出正确的判断关系到很多东西。 做好研究、做好你的功课，还有就是不要随波逐流。 如果每个人都以同样的方式思考，你要说，等一下，我要做更多的研究看看是怎么回事。

Zhao: Research is important. But research is quite difficult so we need to have enough sources to know enough technologies. So a further question. What is the most important thing in research?

研究的确是重要的，但是了解科技所需要做的研究，也需要很多信息源。下一个问题，请问您觉得做研究的时候，最重要的是什么？

Rogers: Everything. You know, no matter how many facts you have, Ms Zhao, there might be something you haven’t thought about because just look at the world. You been around long enough, you will know. No matter how much research you do sometimes something will suddenly happen that nobody thought about. Maybe there would be a hurricane, I mean who knows what might happen. I once sold oil short. And then a war started. People said that was bad luck. No, it was not bad luck. Somebody knew a war was going to start. I should have done more research. I would like to blame it on bad luck. But it was not bad luck. I should have figured out more research in order to know that a war might start. So I would like to blame you and everybody else for my mistake. Ms Zhao, no. My mistake has always been I haven’t done enough research or I got emotional. Don’t let emotions get involved when you are trying to find out what is going on. Try to keep your emotions under control. Get the facts.

一切都很重要。 要知道，赵女士，不管你能掌握多少事实，总有一些事情是你想不到的。就看看这个世界吧，你也很有经验，你知道我的意思。 不管你做了多少研究，有时会会突然发生一些没有人想到的事情。也许会有飓风，谁知道会发生什么。我曾经想卖空石油。 然后突然就打仗了。 有人说是我运气不好。 不，这不是坏运气。 就是有人知道要打仗了。 我应该做更多的研究。 我当然想把错误的判断归咎于运气不好，但这并不是坏运气。 我应该想出更多的研究，以便知道战争可能会发生。我当然想把我的错误归咎于其他人身上。但是，我的错误一直是我没有做足够的研究或者我情绪化了。 当你试图搞清楚世界上正发生着什么的时候，不要让情绪卷入其中。 尽量控制自己的情绪。了解事实。

Zhao: So what do you do if you find out you made a mistake? How to release your pressure?

如果您发现自己做了错误的决定，您会怎么做？怎么去处理情绪？

Rogers: That’s a very good question. Well, some of my friends have an automatic rule so if something goes wrong, they automatically get out. I don’t use that. Sometimes I wish that I have. But when I do when I find a mistake in my investments, I will do more research, I will try to see am I right am I wrong, what I got wrong here. It often took too long, but eventually if I keep doing research and I find out I did something wrong, then I have to take my loss. I don’t particularly like it. But as I have said, some of my friends have automatic rule. If a stock goes down 12 %, or 15%, they automatically get out. In English it is called “stop loss” or “stop your losses”. But I don’t use that, as I said, sometimes I wish I had.

这是一个很好的问题。我的一些朋友会有一个准则，如果出现问题且触犯了准则，他们会自动退出。 我自己没有使用这种方法，有时我希望我有。当我发现我的投资有错误时，我会做更多的研究，我会试着看看我是对还是错的，我在这里做错了什么。 这通常需要很长时间，但如果我继续研究并搞清楚我做错了什么，那么我就承担损失。 我不喜欢这种感觉。 但正如我所说，我的一些朋友有自动推出的规则。 如果股票下跌 12% 或 15%，他们会自动退出。 在英语中，它被称为“止损”。 但我没有使用这种规则，正如我所说，有时我希望我有。

Zhao: It is interesting. Next question. Let’s talk about some new emerging concepts. I want to know I you have done some research about these new concepts. So what do you think of blockchain, metaverse and other technological trends? Do they have any fundamental impact on mankind? I know that many technology giant companies they are all talking about metaverse and blockchain like that.

很有趣的观点。我们来讨论下一个问题吧，是有关于新兴科技概念的。不知道您是否对这些科技概念有一定的了解。请问您怎么看待区块链、元宇宙和其他相关的科技趋势呢？这些科技发展是否会对人类社会产生质的影响？很多科技巨头都在讨论着元宇宙和区块链。

Rogers: Well, Ms Zhao, blockchain is going to change everything we know. It is going to be extremely important. It is going to put a lot of people out of business. But electricity put a lot of people out of business too. It also opened new opportunities for all of us. Blockchain is going to change everything we know, it’s extremely important to the future. I do not have any blockchain investment because I have not found. Samsung is working on blockchain. But I am not going to make a lot of money from Samsung’s blockchain because Samsung is such a big company. I would like to invest in a small and medium-sized company specialized in blockchain. But I haven’t found it yet. If I do, I will surely invest. But some of the other things that are based on blockchain like metaverse. Many people are excited about the metaverse. I don’t see what is the whole purpose of it. But so what. Many people are investing and are making money. I have not yet because I do not see a way to understand it and make money. But if you know something, you should do it. Many people were skeptical about radio when it came along. Many people were skeptical about Television when it came along. Many people were skeptical about the Internet when it came along. So be open. Be open and figure it out. And you would probably make a lot of money. But I do know blockchain, the technology of blockchain, is going to change everything we know and it is going to make a lot of people rich and a lot of people poor.

赵女士，区块链将改变我们所知道的一切，这将是非常重要的。区块链将导致很多人失业，电力的出现也让很多人失业，但电力也制造了新的机会。区块链将改变我们所知道的一切，这对未来极其重要。我还没有任何与区块链相关的投资，因为我还没有找到适合的投资对象。三星正在研究区块链，但投资三星的区块链不会让我赚到很多钱，因为三星是一家如此大的公司。我想投资一家专注于区块链的中小型公司，但是我目前还没有找到合适的。如果我找到了合适的公司，我肯定会投资。但是其他一些基于区块链的东西，比如元宇宙，许多人对元宇宙感到兴奋，但我弄不明白它的意义到底在哪里。不过那又怎样。许多人正在投资云宇宙并赚到了钱。我还没有投资，是因为我不理解元宇宙和其商业模式。但如果你掌握了相应的信息，你就应该去投资。许多人在无线电出现时也持怀疑态度。当电视出现时，许多人对它持怀疑态度。当互联网出现时，许多人对它持怀疑态度。所以我们要开放，敞开心扉去想办法。这样你可能就赚到钱了。但我确实知道的是区块链，区块链技术，将改变我们所知道的一切，它会让很多人变得富有，也会让很多人变得贫穷。

Zhao: I also believe that blockchain will change the world a lot. We also find that blockchain has changed the whole world’s financial system first. Also for the metaverse. So what changes do you think metaverse and its special financial system will bring to the world? Will you invest in metaverse or metaverse related industries in the future?

我也相信区块链会改变这个世界。我们发现区块链首先会改变的是金融系统。至于说元宇宙，在您看来，元宇宙以及其金融系统会给这个世界带来什么影响？您是否会在未来在元宇宙领域有所投资？

Rogers: Well, I am looking for investment. For instance, right now if you go to nearly any city in the world, there are banks, many banks. Bank in this corner, bank in that corner, bank down the street. Most of them are going to disappear in the next 20 years. I don’t know what will happen to the buildings but my children will probably never go to a bank when they are adults. So that’s a change that is coming from blockchain. But right now, you have people in many companies who move a lot of paper, to collect the bills and get the orders. Blockchain is going to change it. In English, it is call the “back offices”. Many back offices are going to disappear, whether it is in finance, in insurance, in shipping whatever it has to be. Blockchain is going to change all of that. It is going to open new opportunities. Electricity changed a lot of things but it also opened many many new opportunities. So yes, I know it is coming. If you own a bank building, Ms Zhao, you should be worried. Those bank buildings are going to disappear. A lot things will change. But everything changes. To me, that’s what the beauty and great excitement would be in the investment world. It’s always changing. If I want to be successful, I have to figure out what the change will be and then I can be successful.

我正在寻找投资的机会。例如，世界上几乎任何一个城市，都有银行，很多银行。这个角落有银行，那个角落也有银行，前面也有银行。这些银行将在未来 20 年内消失。我不知道银行没了，这些大楼会怎么办，但我的孩子长大后，可能永远不会踏入银行，这是来自区块链的变化。现在，许多公司里都有人在处理大量的文件。区块链将改变这个情况。在英语中，我们称之为“清算室”。许多清算室都将消失，无论是在金融、保险还是运输领域。区块链将改变这一切。它将开辟新的机会。电力改变了很多事情，但也开辟了许多新的机会。所以是的，我知道区块链的时代即将到来。如果你拥有一座银行大楼，赵女士，你应该担心，那些银行大楼要消失了，很多事情都会改变，但一切都会改变。对我来说，这就是投资世界的美妙之处和令人兴奋的地方。它总是在变化。如果我想成功，我必须弄清楚会发生什么变化，我才能成功。

Zhao: So what is your take on the global energy crisis?  How can we solve it? And what do you think about the rising commodity prices? I think it is also a related question with blockchain because we also talk about the blockchain and the energy system.

您怎么看待全球能源危机？我们应该怎么处理这个危机？对大宗商品持续疯涨问题的看法？我觉得这也和区块链的问题是有关的，区块链经常和能源系统一并提起。

Rogers: Energy prices are going up because we all use more energy everyday. You and I are talking over the Internet, that takes energy. We have to have electricity, we have to have power, we have to have everything. So we are all using more and more electricity, whether it is with phones, laptops, or whatever it happens to be. And that’s going to continue. In the mean time, the sources of energy, known reserves of oil have been declining for a while. Fracking came along and changed that for a while. But then the fracking bubble burst. We are finding wind power. The Chinese are very good at solar power. We are finding new sources of energy going forward. But in the mean time, people are closing coal mines, they say that coal is bad. Ok, doesn’t matter whether it’s good or bad. If you close a coal mine, then that’s less energy for the world at a time when the world needs more and more energy. So I would not be pessimistic about the price of energy because energy prices need to go higher. Look at electric cars, China is very good at electric cars, probably leading the world in electric cars. But electric cars need energy. Electricity has to come from somewhere. So I would expect that energy prices will continue strong for a long time. I have investment in energy because I know we are going to need more of it. I know that the supplies of energy are not going up, they are mainly going down around the world.

能源价格上涨，是因为我们每天都使用更多的能源。你和我正在通过互联网交谈，这需要能量。我们必须有电，才能使用身边的很多设备。因此，我们都在使用越来越多的电力，无论是手机、笔记本电脑还是其他任何东西，这个状态将继续下去。与此同时，能源，已知的石油储量已经下降了一段时间。 液压破裂法随着出现并改善了一段时间的能源供应，但随后液压破裂法产生的泡沫破灭了。我们正在寻找风力发电。中国人非常擅长太阳能。我们正在寻找未来的新能源。但与此同时，我们在关闭煤矿，因为是说煤炭不好。好吧，不管煤炭是好是坏。你关闭一个煤矿，世界上的能源供应就会相应减少，刚好这个世界需要越来越多的能源。我不会对能源价格感到悲观，因为能源价格需要走高。看看电动汽车，中国很擅长电动汽车，很可能在电动汽车方面领先世界。但电动汽车需要能源。电力必须来自某个地方，所以我预计能源价格将在很长一段时间内保持强劲。我对能源进行了投资，因为我知道我们将需要更多的能源。我知道能源供应并没有增加，在世界范围能源供应在减少。

Zhao: You mentioned about electric cars. Do you think that the new energy bubble exists? Why?

您提到了电车。您是否存在新能源泡沫呢？

Rogers: Well, I was going to talk about electric cars in one minute. I can say that electric cars are coming. I can see that, just like you can. But remember, electric cars for instance use several times as much copper as regular cars do. Electric cars use several times as much lead and lithium as regular cars do. So while we may have less pollution from hydrocarbon, we are going to have more pollution from other things because somebody has to mine the lead, somebody has to mine the copper, somebody has to refine the copper. So many of the things that are taking place in the world will reduce some energy, but increases other energy. So do not think it is so simple. I am very keen on any technological advance. If China could make the best electric car, I hope they do it. But remember, it is going to lead to other opportunities. Copper prices have to go higher etc. It wish it were simple. No. I am glad it is not simple. That’s what is exciting. That’s also what leads to opportunities because it is not simple.

我正打算说到电动汽车。电动汽车即将到来。我能看到，就像你能看到的一样。但请记住，例如，电动汽车使用的铜是普通汽车的数倍。电动汽车使用的铅和锂是普通汽车的数倍。因此，虽然我们可能有较少的碳氢化合物污染，但我们会受到其他更多的污染，因为有人必须开采铅，有人必须开采铜，有人必须提炼铜。世界上某种能源产出变少了，其他能源的产出会变多，不要把这个过程想的太简单。我非常希望看到技术进步。如果中国能造出最好的电动汽车，我希望他们能做到。但请记住，它会带来其他机会。铜价必须走高等等。我希望这是简单的，不，我很高兴这并不简单。这就是令人兴奋的地方。这也是产生机会的地方，因为它并不简单。

Zhao: Because of the time limit, the last question, let’s talk about the pandemic. That’s why we have to have a dialogue like this via video connection. But I think it is better if we could do it face to face. So what changes do you think the pandemic has brought to the global economy? What will the world economy look like after the Covid-19? Will the gap between developed countries and developing countries continue to widen?

由于时间关系，我们只有一个问题了。我们来聊聊疫情吧。疫情也是让我们不得不在网上进行连线对话的原因，我很希望我们可以面对面进行交流。在您看来，疫情给全球经济带来了什么变化呢？在后疫情时代，世界经济会是怎么样的？发展中国家和发达国家的差距是否会越来越大？

Rogers: Ms Zhao, you should read TMTPost if you want to know what changes are coming. They will tell you. You and I are talking over the Internet. That’s a change. That’s changing everything. Meetings, my children going to school over the Internet sometimes. If you cannot go to your doctor, you can call you doctor on the Internet. Doctor, you see this? What is this? You know not for everything obviously. But healthcare. My children will probably never go to a post office. My children will probably never go to a bank. All these changes have been accelerated because of the epidemic that is taking place. I hope we will travel again eventually. I hope that TMTPost can put up many conferences because face-to-face contact is usually much better. So yes, it is accelerating. Some changes are already taking place. And some people will adopt, some won’t. I hope I can learn. You know, I am not very good at technologies so sometimes I have to ask my 13-year-old daughter. How do I do this? My 13-year-old daughter knows more about my phone than I do. So I am learning.

如果想知道世界上正发生的变化，那真应该去阅读钛媒体，上面有相应的信息。你和我正在通过互联网交谈，这是一个变化。这正在改变一切。我们开会的方式，我的孩子有时通过互联网上学。如果您不能去看医生，您可以在互联网上给您打电话。“喂，医生，你看到了吗？这是什么？”当然，互联网问诊不能解决所有需求，但医疗保健确实发生了改变。我的孩子可能永远都不会去邮局，我的孩子可能永远不会去银行。疫情让所有这些变化加速了。我希望我们最终能够再次出门旅行，我希望钛媒体可以举办很多会议，因为面对面的交流通常要好得多。所以是的，疫情正在加速变化的发生。有些人会适应这些，有些人不会。我希望我可以学习。你也知道的，我不太擅长技术，所以有时我不得不问我 13 岁的女儿请教我该怎么做。我 13 岁的女儿比我更了解我的手机。我也在学习。

Zhao: So for ourselves as ordinary people. What should we do to meet the post pandemic era?

对于普通人来说，应该怎么做，来更好地去迎接后疫情时代呢？

Rogers: Well, I am ordinary people too, Ms Zhao. What we have to do is be observant, watch what is happening. Most of us when going to a foreign country for instance we will say “look at that”. But then, what we need to do is “wait a minute, what does that mean?” You and I are talking about changes that are taking place. So if you heard about the company Zoom. You will say Zoom is great. You might then say “wait a minute, should I invest in Zoom? Should I invest in things like Zoom?” Then you might find opportunities. Try to watch what is going on. And listen, I had to learn this lesson too. I had to learn that when I see something that is different or new, I don’t just say “ah that’s great.” I then have to say “ok, now who is going to benefit?” Just like a disaster. Who is going to suffer who is going to benefit? If you want to be a successful investor, you need to start thinking that way. Don’t just say well look at that, that’s wonderful. Start thinking about who is going to benefit and who is going to suffer. And read TMTPost.

嗯，赵女士，我也是普通人。我们要做的就是观察，观察正在发生的事情。例如，我们大多数人去国外时会说“瞧瞧这个，好有趣。”但接下来，我们需要做的是，“等一下，这个有趣的东西意味着什么？”你和我正在谈论正在发生的变化。听说过 Zoom 公司吧。你会说 Zoom 很棒。然后你可能会想“等一下，我应该投资 Zoom 吗？我应该投资和 Zoom 类似的东西吗？”然后你就可能会发现机会。试着观察这个世界发生了什么。这也是我学到的经验。我要知道，当我看到不同的或新的事物时，我不能只是说“啊，太棒了”，我得去思考“好吧，现在谁会受益？”就像一场灾难，谁将受苦，谁将受益？如果你想成为一名成功的投资者，你需要开始这样思考。不要光说“好，看看那个，那太好了。”开始思考谁将受益，谁将受苦，开始读钛媒体的内容。

Zhao: Thank you. Thank you for your great encouragement for our TMTPost. I think in the future we will do more conferences and more connections between China and the world.

谢谢您，非常感谢您对钛媒体的鼓励。我想在未来，我们也会举办更多的大会，为中国和世界搭建更多的交流平台。

Rogers: The more you open up, the more the world opens up, the better world it is going to be, the more prosperity is going to be for everyone. I don’t like to see Washington closing, I don’t like to see anyone closing. I hope all countries can continue to open and we can all go singing and dancing together in persons, have a wonderful time and more prosperity.

中国开放得越多，世界也就开放得越多，世界就会变得更好，每个人都能获得繁荣。 我不喜欢看到华盛顿的孤立行为，我不喜欢看到任何人脱离世界。 我希望所有国家都能继续开放，我们都可以个人一起唱歌跳舞，度过美好的时光，更加繁荣。

Zhao: Great, great. I will remember what you have stressed today again and again. 危机 and be more open. Thank you Mr. Rogers.

好的，非常感谢您。我会记住您今天强调多次的“危机”和开放。再次感谢您，罗杰斯先生。（本文首发钛媒体App）